For 25 years, a small group of humans found vulnerabilities in open source, and a small group of humans fixed them. Both moved at the same pace. Debian backports, LTS kernels, enterprise support contracts, and vendored forks were all priced on that balance. AI broke one side!
- The Linux kernel security team went from 2-3 reports a week to 5-10 a day. Greg Kroah-Hartman called it: "Something happened, and the world switched."
- Firefox shipped around 500 above-baseline CVEs in three months.
- curl expects 3x more confirmed vulnerabilities in 2026 than in any previous year.
The number of people who can write a correct backport patch did not triple. Maintainers can't 10x their throughput with a tool. Each fix needs a human who understands the code, the threat model, the affected versions, the blast radius of the patch.
Two camps come out of this, and the bill is very different for each:
- You track upstream closely: Rolling distros, mainline kernels, evergreen well-maintained registries. When AI finds a bug, the fix lands in the version you actually run. The discovery wave works for you.
- You ship a frozen, forked, or backported version: Long-term stable distros, vendored libraries in enterprise monorepos, embedded firmware on 10-year contracts, every "we're on version X until 2028" deal. When AI finds a bug, somebody has to hand-port the fix into your old code. Nobody has the throughput for that anymore. You take on security debt you can't pay down.
The business under the most pressure is the one that sold stability on top of open source. Red Hat, Canonical LTS, Oracle, anyone paid to maintain old versions. The cost side of that contract went up by an order of magnitude this year, but the revenue side did not.
Have a great day,
Aymen.